Brazilians vote again on Sunday, October 25, in a presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro. With a little over a week to go, polls point to one of the tightest contests in the country’s recent history.
Where the race stands
A Quaest survey released on October 14 put Bolsonaro on 46% and Lula on 44%, within the poll’s two-point margin of error. One percent were undecided, and 9% said they would cast a blank or spoiled ballot or not vote. The poll interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 and over between October 10 and 13 and was commissioned by Globo.
Both men face high rejection: 54% of respondents said they would never vote for Bolsonaro and 53% said the same of Lula. Ninety-one percent said their choice was final.
In the first round on October 4, Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%. No first-round leader has ever lost a Brazilian runoff — but the gap has never been this narrow.
Where the swing votes are
With the two camps largely locked in, the result may depend on small groups:
- Voters of eliminated candidates. Quaest found that backers of Ronaldo Caiado lean 42% to 23% towards Bolsonaro, and supporters of Renan Santos 40% to 14% — though many plan to vote blank. Augusto Cury’s voters lean slightly towards Lula, 34% to 30%. Each group is small, around 2% of the electorate.
- Abstainers. First-round abstention reached 21%, the highest in 28 years. Among those who skipped or spoiled their first-round ballot, Quaest found 43% favouring Lula and 38% Bolsonaro — if they turn out.
- The big states. Analysts say Lula’s path runs through São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, where he needs to win back voters in large numbers.
The issues
Disapproval of Lula’s government stands at 48% against 45% approval, a slight improvement for the president. Crime, the cost of living and Brazil’s strained relations with the United States have dominated the campaign. Among policy proposals tested by Quaest, banning betting sites, ending the six-day working week and lowering the age of criminal responsibility were the most popular.
Bolsonaro, 45, has pledged to seek an amnesty for his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup. He has faced questions over money he accepted from banker Daniel Vorcaro to fund a film about his father, and denies wrongdoing. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term.
What to watch
- The televised debate this weekend — both candidates have confirmed they will take part, after skipping debates before the first round.
- Endorsements, or the lack of them, from eliminated candidates.
- Turnout, especially among low-income voters in the populous south-east.
- Markets: the real has been sensitive to polls, weakening to about 5.04 per dollar on October 14.
Whoever wins will govern alongside a Congress that has shifted to the right, with Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party set to be the largest force in the lower house.