Brazil’s presidential election is heading to a runoff after right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished narrowly ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round on Sunday, October 4, defying most pre-election polls that had shown Lula in front.
The result
With nearly all votes counted, Bolsonaro took about 47% of valid votes — roughly 56 million — against about 45% for Lula, almost 53 million. Neither reached the 50% needed to win outright, and the electoral court confirmed a second-round contest on October 25. Bolsonaro’s margin was about 2.2 million votes, while some 9 million votes went to the ten other candidates.
Turnout was a concern: about 33.4 million voters, or 21.08% of the electorate, stayed home — the highest abstention rate in 28 years, despite voting being compulsory. Historically, the first-round leader has never lost a Brazilian runoff, but the gap has never been this narrow.
Who are the candidates?
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, a senator for the Liberal Party (PL), is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election and is barred from running. Flávio said the result showed Brazilians want change and has pledged to seek an amnesty for his father. He is allied with the Trump administration.
Lula, 80, of the Workers’ Party (PT), is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term. He called the result “unexpected” and said “the game is about to start.”
A stronger right in Congress
Right-wing parties led by the PL performed strongly in both chambers. The PL is on track to become the largest party in the Chamber of Deputies and to hold more than a third of the Senate. Michelle Bolsonaro, Flávio’s stepmother and a former first lady, won a Senate seat for the Federal District in her first run for office, and his brother Carlos was elected senator in Santa Catarina. A more conservative Congress would make it harder for Lula to pass his agenda even if he wins.
What decided the first round
Crime, the cost of living and Brazil’s increasingly tense relationship with the United States dominated the campaign. Lula’s approval fell during his third term over higher prices before recovering. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, faces questions over the Banco Master scandal: he has acknowledged accepting millions of dollars from banker Daniel Vorcaro to fund a film about his father, but denies wrongdoing.
The road to October 25
Both campaigns are now chasing the roughly 9 million voters who backed other candidates and the millions who abstained. Three eliminated candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, have said they will not endorse either finalist.
“The protest vote foreshadows what is to come in the run-off,” political analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters, suggesting Bolsonaro’s support may have peaked early. Others are less sure. “It will be tough for Lula to win,” said Creomar de Souza of Dharma Political Risk and Strategy. Carlos Melo of Insper University said Lula’s path runs through São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro: “Bringing voters back will require a lot of heavy lifting in populous states.”
Workers’ Party chairman Edinho Silva said televised debates — which both candidates skipped in the first round — would be key in the three weeks ahead.